The Post-5E World

We live in a post-5E world. After the OGL, many people moved on. A considerable group went to Pathfinder, and the rest scattered to the winds, with Shadowdark, Dragonbane, and also previous D&D editions picking up players. Wizards fired many of its core players, while many stayed on, due to social connections or investments; switching games did not make sense, nor did they have the time to. D&D Beyond was also a platform lock-in; people had characters and friends there, and it was too hard to leave for "just a game."

The market is highly fragmented.

A new D&D version did not unite the fanbase, especially with some of the more divisive changes to the core rules, such as "Orc guilt" or "the wheelchair debate," and other nonsense that changed the game and should play upon feelings of nostalgia rather than reflect modern divisiveness. People want to forget this world and be brought into another. Bringing in modern topics and cultural strife breaks immersion. It is like putting Pepsi product placement into a Star Wars movie.

They don't understand the product and are actively undermining the nostalgia it should evoke. These are fundamental concepts in product development and marketing.

D&D still holds the lion's share of players, and it will. Many are holding onto 2014, but the overall player count and interest are down. The D&D YouTube people quitting proves my point, plus YouTube saw the trends and told many of them to stop covering D&D. It isn't hitting as much as it used to, and you can't fight the algorithm.

They won't let you.

Interest is down, many are calling it quits, views are down, and there is a general malaise around the post-pandemic hobby. It could not sustain the explosive growth, and the fad of live-play shows is over unless you are the top one or two, and those that adopted a franchise model with spin-off content, such as animation. They used their "escape velocity" well to launch shows, books, and other content with broader appeal.

But that time where massive audiences tuned in is over, and that "rocket fuel" is gone. Critical Role has achieved orbit and can self-sustain, while many others will not or will keep floundering on the low end. There is no wake to ride anymore, nor coattails to get dragged along upon.

Shadowdark still has excitement. It won't be as big as D&D, but it will do well in its niche, as it crosses the old-school/new-school divide well.

And with rumors of 6E in development, 5E clones like Tale of the Valiant will become more and more needed as the years move on. ToV is positioned to be the "Pathfinder 1e" that preserves 5E, as that game did, for D&D 3.5E. I know D&D 2024 is supposed to do that, but there is no guarantee that 5E won't be discarded for a new team to come in and make their mark on the system, bring it back to the old AD&D system, or whatever happens in the future.

D&D 2024 did not sell well enough to be a sure thing.

Even if D&D 2024 stays around for the next 10 years, I like ToV enough to stick with it. They preserved everything I liked about D&D 2014, and fixed the exploits. Gone is the hackish +10 damage feat, and martials feel better here, especially with the Book of Blades. Tales of the Valiant is like a long-term support version of Linux for me; it isn't the flashy new stuff, but it works, it has essential patches, and it just performs and runs well.

Do I need more? Not really. Just something that works.

D&D 2014 worked. This is a fixed version of 2014. It works.

People staying with D&D are those remaining on Windows 11; they can use what they want, just understand and acknowledge the drawbacks, and be prepared for whatever the parent company sends their way in terms of annoyances and bugs, not owning the PDFs, and eventually dropping support. I get the feeling more computers will "cease Windows 11 support" sooner rather than later, and this will become a rolling phased obsolescence. I don't want D&D Beyond to shut down, and people to lose their books.

I can always install Linux.

I can always choose ToV.

I can avoid all of those problems by choosing a game where I own my PDFs.

And how many monsters has Kobold Press made for 5E? Somewhere around 2,000? This is more than I will ever use, and it is a wealth of creatures, better designs than D&D, and far more variety and fascinating lore behind them. And they are not censoring Orcs, Gnolls, and Goblins out of the monster books? There are many monsters in here that I have never seen. Just in "fresh, new things" that I have never seen before, ToV and the Koboldverse win for me.

That "new stuff" is also a bit of a strike against classic games, such as First and Second Editions. Much of this stuff I saw decades ago, and while going back to it is fun, ultimately, I have done this all before. Even revisiting the Forgotten Realms is pointless; I was there 30 years ago, and we went everywhere. I'm curious whether I am even in the D&D and Wizards market anymore, or if moving on and having new experiences is where I will be happiest.

Tales of the Valiant, with the spells, classes, and monsters, is something new to see.

Excuse me, I need to go pull my hardcovers out of the garage and find a place to put them.